Thompson IA "Momentum" fueled by Ron Paul Database Crash (Field Report Two)

One of my well connected political contacts learned yesterday at a Midwestern airport that Ron Paul's 10% Iowa showing was due to a database crash that severely hampered their Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts. I feel badly for the unknown staffer/volunteer who accidentally caused this and debated posting this item due to the potential pain it might cause the anonymous person in question. The anonymous Paul staffer/volunteer went into seclusion after this debacle. I wish him the best of luck in the future and empathize with his embarassment / personal pain.

In any event, Fred Thompson lived in Iowa for the 18 days prior to the Iowa Caucuses, while Ron Paul did not make nearly as many appearances. The fact that Thompson only beat Paul by 3000 votes illustrates that his momentum is mostly an illusion. Had the Paul GOTV operation been operating properly, it is quite likely he would have been able to garner at least another 3500-5000 votes either by turning out additional voters or taking some away from Thompson (Paul actually has more appeal to the conservatives that voted for Thompson than Thompson does due to his "purity" on their issues).

Thus, the late "Thompson surge" is more a product of accidental, technological failing by a competitive rival with unparralleled grass-roots support among non-evangelicals than any indication of real support for Thompson. This is true despite anything Rich Galen has to say on the matter.