The Coming Political Realignment

The fractious competition in both the Republican and Democratic presidential selection process threatens to tear asunder the coalitions that have undergirded both for years. The nomination of John McCain will alienate most supply siders and free speech libertarians. Rudy Giuliani's nomination will alienate the values voters, and Mike Huckabee's nomination will alienate non-evangelicals and non-christianists as well as all right thinking Americans who think it's an abomination that Southern States incorporated the Confederate Battle Flag into their state flags during the push to end segregation. Mitt Romney's nomination obviously will alienate the evangelicals and anyone who prizes ideological consistency.

The likely nomination of Senator Clinton will split the black vote along generational lines. The younger generation of black leaders already is questioning the unwavering support of the black community for the Democratic party, and the Clintonian savaging of Barack Obama will cause them to take a second look at the Republican Party. House Democratic Whip James Clyburn's recent acknowledgement that Republican Senate Leader Everett Dirksen did much to advance civil rights is one reason for this second look. Additionally, the black community likely will come to realize that the Clintons are pitting Hispanics against them and will resent that.

All of this means that parts of both parties will be alienated and up for grabs post the 2008 Presidential election regardless of which party wins. It's conceivable that Republicans could regain their share of the Hispanic vote and enlarge their share of the black vote, while Democrats would gain the allegiance of more social and fiscal libertarians (provided they keep to their DLC roots and don't revert to their big spending LBJ era ways).

Romney Tried to Suppress Giuliani IA Support (IA Field Report Three)

According to another colleague of mine who was monitoring Iowa Caucus 0precincts for his candidate in parts of Eastern Iowa, Romney County Chairs were demanding that Giuliani representatives not be allowed to speak since some of them were from out of state. This is a blatant abuse that should have been dealt with by the Iowa GOP County Chair or the state party.

As a veteran of Iowa caucuses, I can tell you that anyone can be authorized to speak on behalf of a candidate, regardless of state of voter registration. This is completely acceptable under party rules as long as the "outsider" doesn't attempt t vote. I'm a native Iowan, but not registered to vote there, and I've given multiple nominating speeches for different candidates.

In fact, last week both Governor Dave Heineman (Nebraska) and Governor Matt Blunt (Missouri) were allowed to speak on behalf of their respective candidates (can't remember who campaigned for whom). Either they shouldn't have been allowed to speak, or everyone should have been, regardless of where they were from as long as they didn't attempt to vote.

Putting on my analyst/pundit hat my observation is this: Despite Giuliani's lack of a strong presence in Iowa (And I do admire his attempt to run an entirely new strategy), Romney felt the need to keep Giuliani support down in Iowa in order to damage the viability of the person most likely to threaten Romney's ascension to the nomination. Huckabee is a joke - like Pat Robertson he'll get crushed in New Hampshire, where McCain will will. I already wrote about Thompson's dubious Iowa victory, though he has a strong chance of winning South Carolina if he plays it right. After two defeats for Romney and a mixed bag of other winners, Giuliani's strategy may prove wise, in which case he and Romney stand the best chance of being the last men standing and forcing a Feb. 5 showdown (Where, if all goes to their plan, Giuliani is likely to win California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois and a few other big delegate states). Romney obviously wanted to damage Giuliani as early as possible to undercut this possible scenario.




This is likely the last Iowa field report. I should be posting some from other states later this month. If you have anything to report, please let me know, and I'll do my best to verify it and put it up.

Huckabee Victory Not A Surprise

Ok, so the post is a little late, but Senator Huckabee's 2nd place showing in the Iowa Straw Poll on the 11th, seems to have shocked members of the political cognoscenti who thought he would be eclipsed by Brownback or Tancredo. However, had you seen Huckabee at CPAC in March, you would understand why: Huckabee already has a coherent theme that encompasses his entire agenda: he's a "Freedom Conservative," a name almost calculated to bring the "leave me alone coalition" back into the party fold after their collective disgust with Republican venality, corruption, and betrayal of core principles. His speech was very well received by those of use who attended it. Romney by comparison was a surprisingly flat speaker and eclipsed by his eloquent wife.

Governor Huckabee is also a former minister and has a knack for connecting with audiences that other candidates don't have, which was definitely an advantage. Having that in his background allows him to focus on other issues that can expand the party base, since his previous occupation and positions pretty well cover the issues important to the largest segment of the Republican Coalition.

The Straw Poll's importance was obviously diminished this year compared to 1999 due to the decisions of the McCain and Giuliani campaigns to skip the party fundraising event. However, it is still important enough that Huckabee likely will get a bounce and needed fundraising assistance out of his Second Place showing. This should be enought to elbow himself past McCain (the fork's been stuck in him a while yet - now he's just holding on to get FEC matching funds to pay his debts) into the top three position depending on how Fred Thompson performs over the next few weeks. Huckabee is even set to challenge both Romney and Thompson on pure accomplishments. He's simply done more as Governor than Romney did, and does anyone remember anything substantive that Fred Thompson did while in the Senate?

Huckabee is currently doing everything he can ((and doing, and doing it) and doing it well). With a little luck, he could become the conservative alternative to Giuliani, and much more comforting to the base in general than a Mormon. Plus, the fact that he lost all that weight is a testament to his will power, and demonstrates commitment to follow through on necessary issues.

This could be the start of something interesting . . .he'll just have to maximize his earned media and try to keep the MSM more focused on him than on their favorite: Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson.