Huckabee Victory Not A Surprise

Ok, so the post is a little late, but Senator Huckabee's 2nd place showing in the Iowa Straw Poll on the 11th, seems to have shocked members of the political cognoscenti who thought he would be eclipsed by Brownback or Tancredo. However, had you seen Huckabee at CPAC in March, you would understand why: Huckabee already has a coherent theme that encompasses his entire agenda: he's a "Freedom Conservative," a name almost calculated to bring the "leave me alone coalition" back into the party fold after their collective disgust with Republican venality, corruption, and betrayal of core principles. His speech was very well received by those of use who attended it. Romney by comparison was a surprisingly flat speaker and eclipsed by his eloquent wife.

Governor Huckabee is also a former minister and has a knack for connecting with audiences that other candidates don't have, which was definitely an advantage. Having that in his background allows him to focus on other issues that can expand the party base, since his previous occupation and positions pretty well cover the issues important to the largest segment of the Republican Coalition.

The Straw Poll's importance was obviously diminished this year compared to 1999 due to the decisions of the McCain and Giuliani campaigns to skip the party fundraising event. However, it is still important enough that Huckabee likely will get a bounce and needed fundraising assistance out of his Second Place showing. This should be enought to elbow himself past McCain (the fork's been stuck in him a while yet - now he's just holding on to get FEC matching funds to pay his debts) into the top three position depending on how Fred Thompson performs over the next few weeks. Huckabee is even set to challenge both Romney and Thompson on pure accomplishments. He's simply done more as Governor than Romney did, and does anyone remember anything substantive that Fred Thompson did while in the Senate?

Huckabee is currently doing everything he can ((and doing, and doing it) and doing it well). With a little luck, he could become the conservative alternative to Giuliani, and much more comforting to the base in general than a Mormon. Plus, the fact that he lost all that weight is a testament to his will power, and demonstrates commitment to follow through on necessary issues.

This could be the start of something interesting . . .he'll just have to maximize his earned media and try to keep the MSM more focused on him than on their favorite: Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson.

The Revolution Will Be Webcast

A Brave New World of Political Skulduggery? - washingtonpost.com

Finally, politics has embraced our post-modern condition with thr massive dissemination of the Hillary-Obama 1984 ad via (print, tv and web) media in addition to blog and email forwards. The ad is everything good about post-modernism - the mixing of media (video and text), the use of sampling (the reuse of the 1984 Macintosh commercial - aired during that year's superbowl incidentally), superbly crafted subtext(s) (which I go into here using only the video and not the audio) and the ability to spread itself virally. Oh Joy!

Gil Scott Heron was right in that the Revolution will not be televised. It will be brought about by thousands of free spirits creatively using the tools at their disposal to effect massive change. James Carville once made the point that the entire Renaissance was only 1500 people but they changed the world. This ad could herald something similar. I hope it really is the beginning of "citizen political ads" as the MSM has stated. And this WaPo article makes the point that the commercial was made very easily. While it "only" reached a few million of our 300 million citizens, those are the people paying attention early and who will be opinion and grassroots leaders in their communities.

This brings me to a point I haven't made on this blog yet. Namely, that political campaigns belong to the people, not the politicians. Abominations like McCain-Feingold give politicians too much control over the direction of political debate and cultural discourse by limiting who may participate and when they may participate. This is simply the political class's unique version of rent-seeking.

Ads like this show that the barrier to entry for political ads (now that YouTube and its rivals exist) is extremely low and relatively inexpensive. Normal citizens can now make their own advertisements (assuming the FEC doesn't freak out and ban them all) very cheaply and still have impact. What happens now is the question.